It's about time.
[ Posted by Dan on February 16, 2003 | 5 Comments ]

Finally, someone (Google) has bought out Pyra (the company that runs Blogger), and that's bad news for AOL. The value of Blogger is pretty obvious when you multiply the (potential) monthly fees against the number of subscriptions over the next twelve months. I say potentially, because most Blogger users don't pay and instead use the base configuration, and this is why AOL is missing out.

It has been my opinion since I joined the company that AOL should either buy out Pyra, or put them out of business. One is easier than the other, and now that the buy out ship has sailed, there's two problems. If AOL decides to get into the web logging market, they will have to buy someone else, (and obtain the subs list (eg, Live Journal)) or build their own tool set and introduce that to the AOL user base.

Either way, that will put them in a competitive position with Google, with whom they already have a relationship. uses Google for their search technology provider (STP, hehehehe) and likely has little desire to piss them off because the Google experience is a good experience, and no one wants to lose that. Co-optition is unavoidable though if you engage in so many diverse businesses that AOL Time Warner does.

The problem with a home grown solution is the learning process. Blogger is a refined product, and the crew building it knows what web loggers want and how they do their thing. AOL will have to learn all of that from scratch if the rumors are true and they are building a web logging system (disclaimer: I work at AOL, but not in a products group, and certainly don't know anything more than what has been published online).

To be honest though, I wouldn't expect that AOL would be inclined to simply buy a web logging business. As far as I can tell, AOL is a lot like Apple was five and ten years ago (ie, the 'not invented here' syndrome). If they are able to come up with a smart web logging solution that is user oriented (per 's core capabilities) then I think there's some interesting possibilities.

The Blogger business plan (it's basically free) can be more easily swallowed at AOL since you already pay to be a member. Thus the company could just add this as a another service under the umbrella of AOL services that members currently enjoy, and you have another vehicle to drive subscriptions. Another option is to offer it as a low cost add-on premium service for a few bucks a month. This way you probably still drive AOL subscriptions, and then boost the revenue with a few extra bucks a month from those who subscribe. That's likely not a lot of money though, and driving users to the service is a better idea.

Now, consider the Bring Your Own Access plan that AOL sells for $15/month. If an AOL web logging service was bundled into that, then I'd likely be a buyer (note: I get free access to the service). $15/month is two dollars less than my monthly costs for InMyExperience.com which is hosted at Pair.com (who rocks by the way). The feature set of the product would still have to sufficiently robust for a web developer like myself to be interested in abandoning my current system. And that is pretty much the same problem they would have if they choose to compete with Google/Pyra/Blogger.

By the way, is in no position to be buying any businesses these days due to extreme debt levels. 2003 is a debt reduction year for AOL Time Warner, and that creates a competitive disadvantage over one or two product cycles, so I have to believe any possible web logging business will come from within.

 

		Even if AOL does roll their own blogging system, they'll still have to convince their subscribers to use it. I would guess that the majority of AOL bloggers use Blogger atm (due to its ease of use, lack of installation headaches, free, etc.). So, AOL would have to effectively find a way to make something better than Blogger, or at least seem better on the outset. Now, to me, that seems like quite a bit of a challenge, given that Blogger has been around for quite some time, refining their system and such, while AOL would be a new player to the blogging game. Could AOL write a 1.0 app which could be as compelling as Blogger (if not moreso)? I doubt it. -Posted by milbertus on February 16, 2003 06:44 PM

		Well, they could always go the Microsoft route and have enough 'connection problems' or 'display problems' with blogger that their product appears preferable. And... 15 bucks for BYOA? I thought it was 8... hmm... I have an account there, but all I use is the webmail (which they upgraded -- and broke -- yet again, by the way. Smack the guys doing that for me, will you? :-) ). I let my mother use the dialup portion since AOL's about all she can get where she lives. I don't believe I've ever played with blogger. My first weblog was a xanga board, and I never used it. After spending enough time here and at a couple of other blogs, I decided to do one on my own server, using the b2/cafelog product. (which seems to bave been abandoned by its developer, so I'm testing the more complicated pMachine product). Anyway... I'm not entirely sure I'd want to see the AOL Nation blogging... many of the good ones, and a good number of the idiots, already have blogs on other services, or are capable of finding them if they want... if it were handed to the least web-savvy of them, though... ugh. But then that's the beauty of the web. If you don't like a site, don't go there. :-) -Posted by jc on February 17, 2003 09:10 AM

		I think that LiveJournal would be a better target for AOL anyways (read into that statement all you wish) -Posted by Eric on February 17, 2003 12:35 PM

		Eric's right I think. LiveJournal's demographics are probably a better fit. Also, fwiw, Wired has a few comments about the Google/Pyra deal... http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,1282,57754,00.html -Posted by Dan on February 22, 2003 02:06 PM

		Here's another look at the reason why Google bought Pyra... http://www.webmasterworld.com/forum81/376.htm -Posted by Dan on February 27, 2003 09:17 AM

Comment posting has been turned off because I don't have enough time and will to deal with the constant comment spamming. I'm very sorry and will fix this sometime soon (soon = before 2004 ends).