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UCLA Surveys the Digital Future.
[ Posted by Dan on March 11, 2003 | 5 Comments ]

I attended this thing at work today where Jeffery Cole, a Ph.D. at the UCLA Center for Communication Policy (see inset) spoke about current internet trends. It was pretty interesting, but I felt that one major hole in is presentation was bilateral media communications (eg, blogs).

Anyway, here's a bulleted list of some of the things he spoke about (notes were taken in real time, and thus punctuation and grammar are assumed to be absent)...

Surveying the Digital Future
Year Three: The Emergence of Trends
Jeffery Cole, Ph.D.
Director, UCLA Center for Communication Policy
The UCLA Internet Report, 2002
-----------------------------------------

Intro for Cole emphasizing social and economic impacts of digital media on society.

Cole apparently arranged the Info Superhighway conference with Al Gore nine years ago. Today he stands on a stage, bathed in a projected AOL logo talking about the impact of the net on the social fabric.

Today 14 year olds are watching less TV, and this confirms the fact that bilateral communications are attracting people away from TV.

In interviews with a random sample, 5% of Americans appear to NOT be online for the simple reason that everyone else is.

He feels that the gap between Broadband users and modem users is wider then the gap between modem users and non-users. "Broadband changes everything." (And I agree, due to the simple fact the immediacy of data interaction creates a seamless experience, and allows the user to concentrate on the data and the experience instead of the delivery of it. The mental shift between the meaning of the data and the delivery of it creates roadblocks.)

59% of Americans are online. 42% of the rest expect to go online soon (within 12 months) but that might be a hopeful statistic.

Hours per week usage has increased about 2 hours/week in two years.

As people gain internet experience, their usage and online time increases. A bar graph shows a relatively linear increase.

The graph for "at home" connections is vastly modem based, but broadband connections of growing pretty well. WebTV is on the decline. Cable modem seeing the greatest numeric increase.

Internet use is sapping time away from of-line media activities, except in the case of movies.

Broadband use impacts TV advert watching and modem use impacts general TV watching. Broadband use tends to be more atomic, as in, bite sized chunks, perfect for preempting commercials.

 

His broadband v. modem statements are definitely on the mark as far as I'm concerned. When I had dial up access, I would save up sites that I wanted to visit files I wanted to download (the smaller, the better), and do it all at once, when I had a good connection and all that. Since I got broadband, I surf whenever a site comes to mind, grab that 100+ MB file when I hear about it, and just let the download finish.

I know that I wouldn't be as "into" the Internet now than if I was on dialup. Dialup just makes things convienent enough to be useful, but not to make it a new way of doing things.

-Posted by milbertus on March 11, 2003 08:04 PM

These kind of statistics are always kind of strange for me to read. I realize its probably a Boston-area thing, but I know exactly two people that use modems (uncle and grandfather) compared to scores with broadband. Since getting online in 94, I don't think I've spent more than a cumulative total of 4 or 5 months without DSL or faster, and never a single longer stretch than a month. I wonder sometimes if I would have the patience to live on a modem or if I would just get alot more (book) reading done (and likely have an entirely different career).

I basically put broadband on a similar level as running water in terms of necessity (maybe higher, I can buy water at the supermarket). I'm not boasting here, I'm just realizing that I have become something that was probably only science fiction 15-20 years ago...

-Posted by Eric on March 12, 2003 12:33 AM

from what I've seen, once mainstream broadband becomes available in a given area (eg attbi cable instead of joe's wireless that no one's ever heard of, or the dsl company that's changed its name 12 times in as many months and promises more than it delivers) it gets adopted quickly by people like us, and we convince the people around us to get it... and other people see them having it and decide to try it out and see what it's about, and never look back.

Right now, I know 3 people locally who are online with a dialup while living in an area where they can get cable. One only uses the net to email once in a while, one's still trying to decide what kind of router to get, the other says it's too expensive.

There are several (mostly elderly) people in my apartment complex who are on dialup rather than cable, but we're going to fix that soon by setting up an inexpensive wireless network. :-)

Anyway, if he's looking at all users, yeah, it's vastly modem based. If you look just at areas that a major internet provider services with broadband, those percentages will drastically change.

-Posted by JC on March 12, 2003 11:35 AM

Does anyone know if broadband people buy more stuff online? I realize this would be pretty hard to figure out, but if a clear conclusion was made it could have a major in the e-commerce world.

-Posted by Eric on March 12, 2003 01:44 PM

"A greater percentage of broadband users buy online vs. dialup users. These users spend 14% more per buyer, and buy more often. Broadband users constitute 38% of visitors but half of dollars. (Note: includes home and work users.) "

http://sellitontheweb.com/ezine/news0556.shtml

Not sure how accurate that is, though.

In my own personal experience, I'd only made one purchase online (airline tickets) before I got broadband... but since getting broadband pretty much coincided with starting a new job and a doubling of my income, I'm probably an unusual case.

I'm sure it increases the porn subscriptions, if nothing else. Isn't that why Joe User gets broadband, anyway?

-Posted by JC on March 13, 2003 12:31 AM




Comment posting has been turned off because I don't have enough time and will to deal with the constant comment spamming. I'm very sorry and will fix this sometime soon (soon = before 2004 ends).

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