Don't count Netscape out yet.
[ Posted by Dan on May 30, 2003 | 3 Comments ]

There has been some pretty rampant speculation about what will happen to Netscape now that AOL has settled their dispute with MSFT to the tune of a $750 million settlement. Quotes like this from MSNBC are out there...

"Both AOL Time Warner and Microsoft win on this one," said Rob Enderle, an analyst with Giga Information Group. "Microsoft turns what had become an aggravating enemy into at least a marginal friend and possibly a cooperative partner. AOL gets much-needed cash and are able to divest themselves of units that were costing them money like the Netscape unit."

On the webdesign list, a short thread explored the possibilities of there being no Netscape or Mozilla, and there was one voice of reason ("S.Marshall") who said...

Even from a purely technical point of view (i.e. leaving aside the political), control over your code is a very good thing, because when you're using somebody else's software you can't fix their bugs or limitations (sure MAYBE if you have a close financial relationship you can put in a change request that MAYBE they'll handle in six months, but that's never good enough).

And this is an argument that I buy. I can't imagine that AOL would want to dumb Mozilla/Netscape 7 in favor of going blindly with IE over the better part of the decade. And, I haven't heard any rumors at all that AOL is going to dump Netscape (and generally, I hear rumors). And the Netscape folks don't only do a browser, they provide other services within AOL. But this isn't the only part of the MSFT deal that's worth talking about. Dick Parsons, the AOL Time Warner CEO said this in an internal email...

The settlement should also help us deliver an even better online experience to AOL members. The agreement provides that Microsoft will give us technical information and support to ensure the peak performance of the AOL service on current and future Windows operating systems. In addition, Microsoft will provide us with an enhanced ability to market the AOL service to consumers, including opening up a new channel to provide AOL software discs to computer manufacturers worldwide.

If AOL doesn't ship with every copy of Windows, the market penetration of the service would decline (more rapidly). So it's a good thing to have that access (imho, because they pay the bills at Chéz Kapusta). However, at the end of the day, I have to assume that AOL will not limit it's choices and place any control of its own destiny into the hands of a friend or rival.

 

		That controling the code thing is a very good point. At work, the app that I develop uses VBA, and I won't tell you how many issues we have with it. Each time a new issue comes up, we either have to work around it, or write some extremely nasty code. We never even consider the fact that MS might fix the issue that we're having. -Posted by milbertus on May 30, 2003 08:53 PM

		Over at PR Opinions, Tom Murphy notes the M$/AOL deal and points out that Microsoft is falling behind in the usability gains that other browsers have made. Personally, I don't want to have to fork over more money every time I want to upgrade my browser (because Microsoft will be forcing me to upgrade my OS). I'm happy with Win2K and I've moved almost completely to Mozilla (Phoenix, actually). I think there are enough people out there that, if AOL does close down Netscape, the Mozilla development will continue (albeit at a slower pace) and I'll continue to support usable, accessible, and standards-compliant browsers, regardless of the OS it runs on. -Posted by Anthony on June 4, 2003 08:57 AM

		ehhh.. mozilla and offshoots aren't going to die off anytime soon. AOL can self immolate for all I care. -Posted by Himself on June 11, 2003 05:21 AM

Comment posting has been turned off because I don't have enough time and will to deal with the constant comment spamming. I'm very sorry and will fix this sometime soon (soon = before 2004 ends).